Unless you’ve been on holiday in another part of the world, you’re probably getting pretty sick of wind and rain we have had this year. Particularly in Queensland, 2022 has been one of the wettest years on record.
Of course, the well-publicised La Nina weather pattern has been the leading cause, especially considering it’s the third year in a row Australia has experienced it – another situation that is extremely rare.
So, with all that rain behind us, what’s on the horizon for the rest of the year and 2023?
Are the rains going to stop?
The CSIRO’s principal research scientist for oceans and atmosphere, Dr James Lisbey has given some good news for those of us thinking the never-ending cycle of rain is here to say. In fact, he suggests La Nina will weaken by early January. This doesn’t do a lot for people’s Christmas and New Year plans, with the Bureau of Meteorology suggesting the bad weather isn’t over just yet.
In fact, they have suggested that Australia has a 73% likelihood of experiencing more tropical cyclones than usual in the period between November 2022 and April 2023. However, for those who like a glass-half-full approach, that also leaves a 27% likelihood of fewer tropical cyclones occurring during that period.
The summer of 2023
While the Bureau of Meteorology has given a long-range weather forecast, most of it centres around the El Nino – Southern Oscillation, which determines whether we have an El Nino or La Nina weather event.
Experts suggest the weather event should slowly dissipate in January before we slip back into more neutral weather patterns for Autumn. The issue is, these weather events usually don’t make themselves apparent until around September, so at this stage, it’s too early to determine what type of weather we might be treated to in 2023.
However, for those who like playing the odds, it’s extremely rare to experience 3 La Nina weather events in a row. So, while it’s not impossible that we’ll see a fourth, the odds are generally in favour of returning to some normalcy by the summer of 2023.